We pool background data and the collective intelligence of global experts to forecast the most important technology breakthroughs, social trends, and wild cards for business and government.
TechCast’s premier research and strategic tools help our members integrate this knowledge into their forecasting and strategy, marketing and business development, R&D, and other strategic work.
All organizations need forecasts for their strategic planning. Managers often try to develop their own forecasts, but the time and cost are considerable and the results mediocre.
Our members can access constantly updated forecasts, bubble charts, breakthrough articles, and other research to gain needed foresight instantly and cost-effectively.
All forecasts are wrong to some extent, but the past ten years of TechCast operations show that the error in our technology forecasts averages +3/-1 years at 10 years out. Controversial issues may show above average variation, while less controversial items are remarkably consistent. If the existing level of uncertainty is defined as 100%, TechCast reduces it to about 30%. This level of accuracy is sufficient to “get us into the right ballpark,” which is adequate for most applications.
Quantitative forecasts may produce precise answers, but they are always based on assumptions and methods that may not be accurate, which is why quantitative forecasts can differ considerably. TechCast provides more accurate forecasts because we incorporate quantitative forecasts into our system to resolve this uncertainty.
TechCast is operated online in real time, so data inputs are constantly changing as new experts join us, as experts update their estimates, as our research staff redefines questions, and as we generally strive to improve the system. Managing this system is a challenge, and it can produce odd results at times. But the aggregate results remain quite steady, which is what one hopes for in a forecast. The big advantage is that TechCast data are continually refreshed to provide the most current results possible.
There are infinite innovations underway, so TechCast focuses on the 10 or so most strategic trends in each of our fields, or roughly 70 emerging technologies, 30 social trends, and 30 wild cards in total. Strategic forecasts have wide scientific interest, big commercial potential, crucial social impacts, high confidence, and are immediate enough to take seriously. In other words, they have greatest strategic implications and are most likely to affect your organization and you personally.
While our forecasts cover a wide range of emerging technologies, we are constantly seeking feedback from our worldwide user base. In addition to that, we also offer custom forecasts, should you need something more specific.
It takes time and effort to find useful material on the Internet, often not a single source. In addition to that, diverse sources use different standards to develop their forecasts, which makes it difficult to create a bigger picture with standardized projections.
TechCast offers a full spectrum of forecasts, using a common standard, and gives you access to the collective intelligence of a large number of experts from all over the world.